Wheeler Brothers Grain Co -

Soybean Futures Fade Wednesday Rally, Now 5 to 15 Cents Lower

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Thu May 13, 12:25PM UTC

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Overnight soy trading has the board 5 to 15 cents lower to start the Thursday session. Preliminary OI data suggests the Wednesday gains were net new buying with a big 17,109 contract increase for the day. Futures closed 11 1/4 to 27 3/4 cents in the black led by old crop. Soymeal futures closed $1.30 to $1.80 higher on the day. BO futures were 165 to 160 points stronger. The USDA projected cash average price for new crop is initially seen at $13.85/bu.

For new crop USDA sees bean output bouncing back to 4.405 bbu, and stocks creeping up to 140 mbu. NMY exports are initially forecasted to slide from the record 20/21 pace to 2.075 bbu. NMY crush on the other hand is expected to exceed this season’s record pace by an additional 35 mbu with 2.225 billion forecasted. Several plants are adding capacity.

Global soy numbers reported imply USDA sees price incentives increasing output by 22.58 MMT to 385.53 million metric tonnes. So. Am. production is estimated to greatly increase in 21/22, bouncing back from dryness and late planting problems from this season. Argentina is estimated at 52 MMT (from 47) and Brazil is seen at a record 144 MMT (from 136). China is expected to continue to import vast amounts of soybeans in 21/22, bringing in 103 MMT (or 60% of all global external bean trade). Global soybean carryout is expected to build back by 4.5 MMT to 91.1 MMT.

Trade ideas for USDA’s weekly Export Sales report are running zero to 250,000 MT for old crop soybeans and 200-420,000 MT for new crop, according to Reuters.

Jul 21 Soybeans closed at $16.42 1/2, up 27 3/4 cents, and are down 15 1/2 this morning,

Nearby Cash was $16.51 ½ on Wednesday, up 27 1/8 cents,

Aug 21 Soybeans closed at $15.72 1/2, up 19 cents, and are down 12 cents this morning

Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $14.43 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents, and are down 19 1/2 this morning

New Crop Cash was $13.94 1/6 on Wednesday, up 12 1/8 cents,

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